Hard Drive Prices Rise for Fourth Consecutive Quarter

Prices for hard drives (HDDs) used in personal computers (PCs) are continuing to rise. Bulk transaction prices have increased for the fourth consecutive quarter from January to March. In China, strong demand for PCs, coupled with hard drive manufacturers shifting production to data center products, has led to a tight supply-demand situation. Many in the market believe that prices are unlikely to fall at present.

Major HDD manufacturers include Seagate Technology, Western Digital, and Toshiba’s subsidiary, Toshiba Electronic Components & Storage.

From January to March, the price of 3.5-inch 1TB HDDs used in desktop computers and surveillance cameras rose 1% from the previous quarter, reaching approximately $53.50. 2.5-inch 1TB HDDs used in laptops also rose 1%, reaching approximately $50.50. Both have seen price increases for the fourth consecutive quarter.

The price increase is driven by the anticipated increase in PC demand in China, starting in 2025. An executive at a Japanese electronics company stated, “PCs running Huawei’s HarmonyOS use HDDs.”

In previous years, January to March was a period when demand from the year-end sales season subsided, and quarterly shipments tended to decrease. However, due to the special demand from China, shipments of 3.5-inch and 2.5-inch hard disk drives (HDDs) in January to March 2026 are expected to see a smaller decrease compared to October to December 2025 (Kengo Ota, Assistant Director of Techno Systems Research, a Japanese research firm).

Furthermore, the shift in production by HDD manufacturers has also had an impact. Companies are increasing production of high-capacity HDDs, known as “nearline” drives, for data centers, rather than low-capacity PCs. Nearline HDDs have higher profit margins. Seagate expects to discontinue some models of its low-capacity (1TB, 2TB) HDDs.

In addition, rising component prices are another factor. It is believed that component costs account for approximately 50-60% of the cost of HDDs. Currently, soaring DRAM commodity prices are driving up HDD costs.

A major HDD manufacturer stated that there is “strong customer demand” for nearline high-capacity HDDs. Against the backdrop of global AI investment, the storage capacity demanded by buyers is expanding. Some sources indicate that bulk transaction prices from January to March have increased by over 20% compared to October to December 2025.

The lower price per GB for hard disk drives (HDDs) compared to solid-state drives (SSDs), which compete with AI technologies, is a positive point.

Analysts believe that bulk transaction negotiations for 2026 have concluded, and companies are beginning to accept orders for 2027-2028. An executive at an eCommerce company stated that some HDD manufacturers have an order-to-delivery time of approximately 52 weeks, meaning a wait of over a year.

Due to the prolonged supply shortage, current HDD prices are unlikely to fall, and the seller’s market is likely to continue.