UK 2026 Growth Forecast Raised to 1.0%, the Only Upgrade among G7 Economies

The United Kingdom is the sole G7 country to receive an upward revision to its 2026 growth forecast from the IMF. The Fund raised its UK growth projection from 0.8% to 1.0% for 2026, while holding the 2027 forecast steady at 1.3%.

This growth rate would place the UK third in the G7 ranking, behind the United States (2.3%) and Canada, and ahead of Italy (0.5%). Still, this represents a notable slowdown from the 1.4% growth recorded in 2025. The IMF’s projections suggest that the relative strength seen in early 2026 is unlikely to persist into the second half of the year.

Barret Kupelian, Chief Economist at PwC UK, noted that as a net energy importer operating in an uncertain global trade environment, the UK remains exposed to inflation volatility. “The UK received an upgrade, but businesses still need certainty on the upside. Providing domestic certainty to counter international uncertainty should be a priority for policymakers,” he said.