IMF Keeps US 2026 Growth Forecast Unchanged at 2.3%, with Net Energy Exporter Status Providing a Buffer

In its latest update, the IMF maintained its 2026 growth forecast for the United States at 2.3%, with a 2027 projection of 2.2%. As a net energy exporter, the US has largely avoided the energy price shocks triggered by the Middle East conflict.

The report indicates that US economic activity continues to benefit from fiscal policy support, accommodative financial conditions, and robust tech‑related business investment and productivity gains. Analysts point to the 2025 tax cuts, strong productivity improvements, and a buoyant stock market as key pillars of support.

Deniz Igan, head of the IMF’s World Economic Studies Division, said the US economy is expected to achieve solid growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Still, the report warns that downside risks remain, including potential corrections in AI market expectations and the pressure that widening fiscal deficits in major economies may put on long‑term interest rates.