IMF Raises China’s Growth Forecast to 4.6%, Driven by High‑Tech Manufacturing and Exports

On July 8 local time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its updated World Economic Outlook report, raising China’s 2026 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, while the 2027 projection was lifted by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. Against the backdrop of a global growth forecast downgraded to 3.0%, China stands out as one of the few major economies to receive an upward revision.

The report notes that China’s economic activity in the first quarter of this year came in stronger than expected, driven by front‑loaded public infrastructure investment, robust high‑tech manufacturing growth, and resilient exports. Data show that from January to May, high‑tech manufacturing contributed nearly 40% of industrial growth, while equipment manufacturing accounted for close to 60%. Output of 3D printing equipment, lithium‑ion batteries, and industrial robots surged by 54.4%, 40%, and 27.9% year‑on‑year, respectively. Foreign trade also performed strongly, with total goods trade expanding 15.3% year‑on‑year in the first five months, and mechanical and electrical products making up over 60% of total exports.

However, the report also highlights risks: rising global oil prices, persistent uncertainties, and structural factors are expected to continue weighing on China’s economic activity. Analysts believe that while China is in a transition period from old to new growth drivers, its potential growth rate of around 5% remains among the highest among major global economies.