Displaced Africans drive $28bn ‘hidden economy’, report finds

Africa’s displacement crisis is often told through the language of emergency appeals, aid shortfalls and growing camps. But a new study argues that the millions forced from their homes also represent a largely untapped economic force.

The Amahoro Coalition, a private-sector platform, says Africa’s 43.1 million displaced people generate about $27.7 billion in annual income through what it describes as a “hidden” economy — challenging the long-held view of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) solely as recipients of humanitarian support. The collective economy of Africa’s displaced population is now roughly the size of Zambia’s national GDP, built almost entirely outside banking systems, retail networks and credit markets.

According to the report, titled *Hiding in Plain Sight: Africa’s $27B Displacement Market Opportunity*, internally displaced persons account for $22.1 billion of the annual income, while refugees contribute $5.6 billion. The research draws on household survey data from more than 10,000 families across Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia, Nigeria, Niger, Mali, Cameroon and beyond.

Resilience against the odds

Despite severe legal, regulatory and documentation constraints, the labour force participation rate among displaced communities stands at 56% — and displaced entrepreneurs fail at one-third the rate of host-community businesses. Refugee-focused micro-lenders report loan repayment rates exceeding 95%, often beating microfinance benchmarks in surrounding host communities. An estimated 3.4 million displaced-led businesses generate $4.1 billion in annual earning potential across Africa.

The report identifies agriculture, finance, supply chains and manufacturing as sectors where displaced people can thrive. It estimates a $3.2 billion opportunity in financial services alone if displaced populations gained the same access to banking as the broader population, and a further $2.4 billion in agriculture if land access frameworks caught up with economic reality.

The Uganda model

Uganda, which hosts the largest refugee population in Africa at about two million people, is cited as the clearest example of what happens when policy enables economic participation rather than restricting it. About 91% of refugees in Uganda have access to land to settle and farm — allowing settlements to function as production zones rather than holding areas. Since 2017, more than $200 million has been invested in refugee-hosting districts. The Omia Agribusiness Farmer Hub has served more than 49,000 refugee and host-community farmers and channelled more than $413,000 directly to them.

Markets that have emerged around Uganda’s refugee settlements are now home to grain traders, mobile money agents, motorbike mechanics, farmers, tailors and young entrepreneurs moving goods between settlements and nearby towns.

A commercial frontier

“Africa’s displaced communities are not waiting for rescue. They are running businesses, farming land, and moving goods across borders,” said Tito Mbathi, head of partnerships at the Amahoro Coalition. “Behind humanitarian statistics are viable customers, capable workers, and innovative entrepreneurs. The question is whether the private sector is ready to recognise what has long existed,” said Isaac Kwaku Fokuo Jr, a curator at the coalition.

The scale of displacement continues to grow. According to the 2026 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, sub-Saharan Africa recorded 17.3 million internal displacements in 2025, of which 14.5 million were triggered by conflict and violence — accounting for nearly 45% of the global conflict total.

The Amahoro Coalition is now working with dfcu Bank, one of Uganda’s largest financial institutions, to turn the report’s findings into lending products for displaced entrepreneurs. “Displaced people are not only participants in the economy — they are entrepreneurs, farmers, customers and partners in growth,” said Maryann Wanjiku Michuki, dfcu’s chief business solutions and marketing officer.