China’s GDP Growth Accelerated to 5.0% in the First Quarter

Data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on April 16 showed that China’s GDP, after adjusting for price changes, grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, accelerating from the 4.5% growth rate projected for the October-December period in 2025. Strong exports and production contributed to the overall growth.

The year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter was higher than the market average expectation (4.7%) in a survey conducted by Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth rate was 1.3%, also expanding from the 1.2% growth rate projected for the October-December period in 2025.

If the month-on-month growth rate is converted to an annualized rate using methods commonly used in developed countries, the growth rate is approximately 5.3%. Nominal GDP, which more closely reflects residents’ actual experience, grew by 4.9% year-on-year, compared to 3.9% in the October-December period of 2025.

In addition to GDP, other statistical data were also released.

The added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 6.1% in the first quarter. 3D printing equipment sales increased by 54%, and industrial robot sales increased by 33.2%. March alone saw a 5.7% increase.

Total retail sales of consumer goods, including department stores, supermarkets, and e-commerce sales, increased by 2.4% year-on-year in the first quarter. Catering revenue, accounting for 10% of the total, increased by 4.2%. Total retail sales increased by 1.7% in March alone.

Fixed asset investment, including in display factory construction, increased by 1.7% in the first quarter. Private investment declined by 2.2%. The real estate market remained sluggish, with development investment declining by 11.2% in the first quarter.

External demand became a driving force for economic growth. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 14.7% year-on-year in the first quarter. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased.

The Chinese government has set its economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5-5.0%. With the deteriorating situation in Iran, if the prices of resources such as crude oil continue to rise, it will become a factor contributing to economic downturn.