SIPRI: Global Arms Trade Up 9% in Last 5 Years

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) announced on March 9 that global arms trade from 2021 to 2025 will increase by 9% compared to 2016-2020, reaching the highest level since the end of the Cold War (1986-1990). European arms imports increased 3.1 times, playing a significant role in this growth.

SIPRI uses its own independent indicator, “TIV,” to estimate the trade volume of major conventional weapons. This indicator is calculated to eliminate the impact of inflation and takes into account factors such as production costs and whether the weapons are new or used. Due to significant fluctuations in each year, a five-year period is used to reflect the overall trend.

The total global arms trade volume from 2021 to 2025 reached 154.1 billion TIV, the highest level since the end of the Cold War (1986-1990). This represents a 57% increase compared to the post-Cold War low of 2001-2005. Looking at the figures by year, 2022, the year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and 2025, the year of Trump’s second term, saw a particularly large increase.

Europe’s arms imports expanded to 50.8 billion TIV from 2021 to 2025, accounting for 33% of global arms imports and making it the largest buyer. As of 2016-2020, Europe’s arms imports were still lower than those of Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East.

Ukraine, receiving military support from the US and Europe, saw its arms imports increase 119 times from 2016-2020, reaching 14.9 billion TIV, making it the world’s largest arms importer.

Neighboring Poland saw its arms imports increase 9.5 times, reaching 5.5 billion TIV, ranking 7th. The UK increased by 19%, reaching 3.3 billion TIV, ranking 13th.

Europe’s annual arms imports will reach their highest point in 2025. Due to the increased threat from Russia and concerns about reduced US involvement in European security during the Trump administration, Europe is accelerating its efforts to enhance its defense capabilities.

Despite its growing distrust of the United States, Europe continues to strengthen its defense capabilities, yet its arms procurement remains heavily reliant on the US. From 2021 to 2025, 48% of Europe’s arms imports will come from the US, a higher percentage than in 2016-2020.

Siemon Wezeman of SIPRI stated, “Europe is increasing its imports of the latest US-made F-35 stealth fighter jets and Patriot air defense systems.”

The reason given is that “the development of large-scale weaponry takes time, and to counter the current Russian threat, it can only buy from the US.” He pointed out that many orders have already been placed, and “the proportion of US-made equipment will remain high for some time.”

On March 3, US President Trump threatened to cut off all deals with Spain, which refused to allow US military bases to attack Iran. 49% of Spain’s arms imports come from the US. This dependence on the US could pose a security risk.

Europe hopes to increase its arms self-sufficiency rate. Wezeman pointed out that European countries have different requirements for the parameters and performance of weapons, leading to the observation that “three to four different designs exist within the European region, unnecessarily increasing costs.” “To increase self-sufficiency, this challenge needs to be overcome across Europe.”

The currently conflict-ridden Middle East imported 39.8 billion TIV worth of weapons between 2021 and 2025. While this is a 13% decrease compared to 2016-2020, it still accounts for 26% of global imports. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, three pro-American countries, ranked among the top 10. Israel’s arms imports increased by 12%, ranking 14th.

Iran’s arms imports account for only 0.2% of the Middle East’s total, with Russia being its sole supplier. Siemon Wezeman explained, “Due to long-term embargoes and economic recession, Iran is unable to acquire modern weapons.” “While possessing domestically developed missiles and drones, it lacks air defense systems, etc.”

The increasing momentum in arms trade will further exacerbate tensions between neighboring countries.

From 2021 to 2025, India ranked second in the world in arms imports, reaching 12.6 billion TIV. A military conflict is expected between India and Pakistan, ranked fifth (importing 6.4 billion TIV of weapons), in 2025.

India is gradually shifting its arms import sources from Russia to France and Israel, among others. 80% of Pakistan’s arms imports come from China. In the Indo-Pakistani military conflict, Chinese and French fighter jets, and Israeli drones, have been used, becoming a testing ground for Western and Chinese weapons.

China’s arms imports decreased by 72% from 2021 to 2025, ranking 21st in the world. This is the first time in 30 years that China has fallen out of the top 10. Wezeman stated, “Over the past five years, China has been able to produce all its advanced weapons domestically, no longer needing the Russian weapons it previously imported.”

Japan’s arms imports increased by 76%, ranking 6th in the world with 6 billion TIV. South Korea, due to increased domestic arms production, saw a 54% decrease in imports, ranking 16th.

Regarding arms exports from 2021 to 2025, the world’s largest exporter, the United States, increased by 27% compared to 2016-2020, reaching 64.6 billion TIV. The United States exports weapons to 99 countries, ranking among the top three suppliers in 76 of them. The United States’ share of global arms exports rose from 36% to 42%, strengthening its position as the dominant power.