China’s exports grew by 21.8% in January and February

China’s exports grew 21.8% in January and February, while exports to the US fell 11%.

Semiconductor exports surged 72.6%, and automobile exports jumped 67.1%, both achieving significant growth.

Trade statistics (in US dollars) released by China’s General Administration of Customs on March 10 showed that exports reached $656.5 billion in January and February, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, significantly higher than the 6.6% growth rate in December 2025. To achieve the government’s target of a 4.5% to 5.0% real economic growth rate by 2026, China will increase exports.

Exports have maintained positive growth since November 2025. Imports totaled $442.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, expanding from the 5.7% growth in December 2025. The trade surplus, calculated by subtracting imports from exports, was $213.6 billion. Because export growth exceeded import growth, the trade surplus was larger than the same period last year.

By product category, semiconductor exports increased by 72.6%, and automobile exports, including pure electric vehicles (EVs), increased by 67.1%, both achieving significant growth. Furniture and computer-related product exports also increased by 20% each. Toy exports also exceeded the same period last year. Rare earth exports increased by 20%.

On March 5th, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced at the opening ceremony of the National People’s Congress that the actual economic growth target for 2026 is “4.5% to 5.0%”. Although this is a downward revision from “around 5%” in 2025, external demand is crucial given the continued weakness in domestic demand.

By region, exports to ASEAN, the largest export destination, increased by 29.4% year-on-year. Exports to the EU increased by 27.8% year-on-year. Exports to South Korea and Brazil both increased by more than 20% year-on-year.

Affected by trade frictions, exports to the US decreased by 11% year-on-year. Although the decline narrowed compared to the 30% drop in December 2025, it has continued to decline since April 2025. US President Trump is expected to visit China from March 31 to April 2 to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where they will discuss trade and other issues.

Exports to Japan increased by 8.9% year-on-year. Among the countries and regions listed by the General Administration of Customs, Japan had the smallest increase, second only to the continuously declining US.

Since January, China has strengthened export restrictions on Japan through dual-use items controls. Rare earth may be included in the scope of controls. In February, China added 20 Japanese companies and organizations to its dual-use item export control list. If these controls are prolonged, exports to Japan may stagnate.

Some also believe that the oil price surge triggered by the US-Israel attack on Iran may impact Chinese exports, as the continued rise in oil prices could dampen economies and reduce domestic demand.

Qian Junhui, a professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, stated in Chinese media that exports have been one of the few bright spots in China’s economy in recent years. However, if trading partners enter a severe recession, China’s external demand will be affected.