WTO: Global trade in goods may decrease by 1.5% in 2025

The World Trade Organization (WTO) released a forecast on April 16 that global trade in goods will decrease by 0.2% in 2025 compared with 2024. Affected by the tough tariff policy of the Trump administration in the United States. The WTO predicts that if trade frictions expand, there is a risk that the volume of trade in goods will decrease by up to 1.5%.

It is possible to create the largest drop since 2020, when the new crown epidemic caused a decline in world trade. It is a significant reduction compared with the forecast in October 2024 (an increase of 3.0%).

The Trump administration imposes a 10% reciprocal tariff on imports from all countries in the world. Although the additional tariffs on countries and regions based on the reciprocal tariffs have been suspended for 90 days, the prospects for negotiations with various countries are still unclear. The WTO predicts that if the additional part of the reciprocal tariff is implemented, the trade volume will be reduced by about 0.6%.

In terms of regions, North America, including the United States, is the most affected. The WTO predicts that due to trade frictions with China, imports of electronic products and other products will decline, and overall imports will decrease by 9.6% compared with last year. Exports will also decrease by 12.6%.

The WTO expects Asia’s imports and exports to increase by 1.6%, maintaining a small increase.

WTO Director-General Okonjo-Iweala expressed concern at a press conference about the economic division between China and the United States caused by the intensification of trade frictions. She said, “If the world economy splits into two isolated groups, the impact will be widespread.” She also mentioned that global GDP may fall by 7% in the long run.