Vietnam’s GDP Grew by 7.83% in Q1 2026

According to data released by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam on Saturday, April 4, 2026, Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.83% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, higher than the market expectation of 7.60%, but lower than the 8.46% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Growth Performance and Market Expectations

Key Data: Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.83% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026.

Horizontal Comparison: This growth rate is higher than the market consensus of 7.60%, but lower than the 8.46% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a slowdown in economic growth momentum.

Long-Term Comparison: Compared with the 7.05% year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2025, the growth rate in the first quarter of this year has accelerated.

Reasons for the Slowdown and External Pressures

Main Sources of Pressure: The slowdown in economic growth was mainly affected by soaring energy costs and supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Vietnam relies on imports from the Middle East for over 80% of its crude oil. The conflict has driven up fuel prices and disrupted transportation.

Specific Impacts: Rising fuel prices have forced Vietnamese airlines to scale back operations. Data shows that gasoline and diesel prices in Vietnam have increased by 21% and 84%, respectively, due to the conflict.

Government Responses: To stabilize domestic energy prices, the Vietnamese government has introduced several measures, including reducing fuel taxes, subsidizing fuel prices through government funds, and encouraging remote work. A suspension of some fuel taxes will continue until April 15, 2026.

Economic Growth Drivers and Trade Performance

Despite external challenges, the Vietnamese economy has shown resilience, primarily driven by manufacturing and exports.

Manufacturing Plays a Prominent Role: Manufacturing growth reached 9.73% in the first quarter, making it the core driver of overall economic growth.

Foreign Trade Remains Active

Exports: Exports in March increased by 20.1% year-on-year, reaching US$46.44 billion. Vietnam’s total exports for the first quarter increased by 19.1% year-on-year to US$122.93 billion.

Imports: Imports in March increased by 27.8% year-on-year to US$47.11 billion. Total imports for the first quarter increased by 27.0% year-on-year to US$126.57 billion.

Trade Balance: Due to imports growing faster than exports, Vietnam experienced a trade deficit of US$3.64 billion in the first quarter. Of this, Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States reached US$33.9 billion, an increase of 24.2% year-on-year.