Global smartphone shipments are projected to hit a record low in 2026

According to a forecast released by US research firm IDC on February 26, global smartphone shipments in 2026 are expected to decrease by 12.9% compared to 2025, falling to 1.12 billion units, a record low in over a decade. Due to memory shortages, shipments of low-priced smartphones are expected to decline sharply. The impact is expected to be greater than that of Trump’s tariffs and the COVID-19 pandemic, with the decline also reaching a record high.

IDC stated that “memory prices are expected to stabilize by mid-2027, but the likelihood of a return to previous levels is low, and low-priced smartphones will remain unprofitable for a long time. The era of low-priced smartphones is over, which means a structural reset of the entire market.”

The memory shortage will have a particularly severe impact on low-priced smartphones running Google’s Android operating system. IDC analyst Francisco Geronimo pointed out, “Due to supply constraints and rising component prices, profit margins are squeezed, forcing companies to raise prices. Demand may decrease sharply.” IDC expects shipments to decline by 20.6% in the Middle East and Africa markets, 10.5% in China, and 13.1% in the Asia Pacific region excluding Japan.