Chinese Mainland Tourists to Osaka to Drop 45% in December 2025

The Osaka Tourism Bureau released data on January 26th showing that the number of Chinese mainland tourists visiting Osaka Prefecture in December 2025 is projected to decrease by 45% compared to the same month of the previous year, falling to 176,000. The number of Chinese tourists, which previously drove the growth of foreign visitors to Osaka, is expected to continue to decline, making attracting tourists from Europe and the United States even more important.

The sharp drop in Chinese tourists is largely attributed to the impact of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks regarding a potential conflict in Taiwan, which led the Chinese government to urge its citizens to exercise caution when traveling to Japan. Statistics from Kansai Airport Corporation show that the number of flights from China to Kansai International Airport in December 2025 decreased by 40% year-on-year. Demand for flights from Chinese regional cities, which have a high volume of group tours, saw a particularly large decline.

At the Ebisubashisuji Shopping Street in Osaka, where the “Glico billboard” and the “551HORAI” flagship store are located, foot traffic after late December decreased compared to the previous year. Duty-free sales to Chinese customers at Takashimaya Osaka store in December decreased by 40% year-on-year. Osaka Sees Record High in Tourist Arrivals

The number of tourists visiting Osaka in 2025 is projected to increase by 21% year-on-year, reaching 17,604,000 (estimated), marking a record high for the second consecutive year. “In terms of spending, it is expected to reach 1.6 trillion yen” (Hiroshi Mizohata, Chairman of the Osaka Tourism Bureau). Tourists from Europe, America, and Australia increased by 20-40%, while tourists from mainland China increased by 39% year-on-year, boosting the overall figure.

Inbound tourist spending in the Kansai region accounts for 2% of the region’s actual Gross Regional Product (GRP). The Japan Research Institute estimates that if the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan were halved, the Kansai economy would be dragged down by 0.3% annually (approximately 310 billion yen).

The reliance on Chinese tourists is changing.

Due to its geographical proximity to China, the proportion of mainland Chinese tourists among foreign tourists in the Kansai region has consistently been higher than in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

In the 2010s, the core of Osaka’s inbound tourism consisted of mainland Chinese group tourists, known for their “explosive shopping” sprees. However, the recovery of tourists from mainland China stalled after the COVID-19 pandemic, with foreign tourists now scattered across South Korea, Taiwan, Southeast Asia, and Europe and America.

According to the Japan Tourism Agency’s accommodation and travel statistics survey, in October 2025, mainland Chinese tourists accounted for 25.3% of the total number of foreign overnight guests in Osaka Prefecture, a decrease of 16.2 percentage points from October 2019. While still higher than Tokyo (14.8%), the reliance on mainland China has changed.

Analyzing the number of mainland Chinese tourists during the Lunar New Year holiday in February, Mizohata stated that it “may decrease by 40-50% (compared to the previous year).” He also noted that “other markets such as South Korea and Taiwan are also growing, so even if the decrease (of mainland tourists) is prolonged, it can fully offset the negative impact.”

Spanish tourists increased by 60%

Currently, the trend of tourists from other regions compensating for the decrease in mainland Chinese tourists is accelerating. Hotels under the Kintetsu-Miyako Hotel Company, which operates hotels around Universal Studios Japan in Osaka, saw a more than 60% year-on-year increase in the number of Spanish guests from April to December 2025.

At Takashimaya Department Store in Osaka, duty-free sales to tourists from regions outside mainland China, primarily Southeast Asia, increased by approximately 15% year-on-year in December.

A manager at Hotel Vischio Osaka, near JR Osaka Station, stated that given the unpredictable nature of the Lunar New Year travel rush, they will “strengthen promotions targeting online travel agencies (OTAs) and other businesses with a large customer base in Europe and America.”

Akiko Kosaka, chief researcher at the Japan Research Institute, pointed out, “The tourism industry is relatively vulnerable to unforeseen events such as natural disasters and infectious diseases. In the long run, it is important to avoid relying on a single market and attract tourists from diverse regions.”