EU Officials: Ukraine’s Accession Unlikely Before 2027

According to an AFP report on December 12, a US plan to end the war in Ukraine, which aims to allow Ukraine to join the European Union by 2027, was met with skepticism in Brussels on the 12th, with diplomats and officials deeming the proposal unrealistic.

The complex process of joining the EU typically takes years, including negotiations on a wide range of issues from agriculture to the rule of law.

“2027, that’s practically tomorrow,” said an unnamed EU official, noting that things in Brussels usually take a long time to get things done.

Even the most optimistic officials—such as EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos—have consistently hoped that Kyiv could join the EU no earlier than 2030.

“It’s as if the Americans are going to make the decisions for us! That doesn’t make sense: there’s no desire to enlarge the EU right now,” said an EU diplomat.

The idea of ​​a swift EU accession for Ukraine was included in the latest version of the US-led armistice plan. The plan also requires Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, causing diplomatic turmoil across Europe in recent weeks.

Ukraine applied to join the European Union just days after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. This move was seen as a powerful declaration. However, the process has been slow due to opposition from Hungary.

The EU accession process requires unanimous approval from all member states—a condition that has not yet been met due to obstruction so far by Viktor Orbán, Moscow’s closest ally within the EU and Hungarian Prime Minister.

Even if Budapest were to approve, several extremely complex issues would need to be resolved quickly. The accession negotiations for Ukraine, which officially begin in June 2024, need to address how to accept a major agricultural nation without disrupting the stability of the European single market.

Grain producers in France, Germany, and Poland often accuse Kyiv of unfair competition due to the low prices offered by Ukrainian grain producers. Furthermore, Ukraine needs to push through reforms during the ongoing war.