The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its 2026 growth forecast for emerging markets to 4.6%

The ADB released a forecast on December 10th, predicting that the GDP of emerging Asian markets will grow by 4.6% in 2026 compared to the previous year. This is an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points from its previous forecast released in September.

The ADB predicts that the impact of tariff reduction agreements with the Trump administration in the United States will be smaller than initially predicted, as more countries reach such agreements.

According to the ADB’s latest estimates, GDP growth in 2025 is expected to be 5.1%, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from its September forecast. Not only will personal consumption remain strong, but exports of electronic devices, particularly artificial intelligence (AI) related semiconductor products, are also showing a positive trend.

By country and region, India’s growth rate is projected to be 7.2% in 2025, a significant upward revision from the 6.5% forecast in September. Due to the effects of Indian government tax cuts and increased personal consumption, the impact of US tariffs is also minimal. The growth forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 6.5%. China’s growth rates are projected at 4.8% and 4.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively. China’s exports to regions outside the US, such as Europe and Southeast Asia, are expected to increase. However, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) notes that the real estate market remains sluggish and “domestic demand remains weak.”

Southeast Asia’s growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 4.5% and 4.4%, respectively. Exports, primarily in electronic equipment, are performing well. The ADB cites frequent natural disasters, such as floods, as a cause for concern going forward.