International Copper Prices Enter the $10,000 Era

International copper prices are at historically high levels. Investment funds betting on ore shortages and data center demand are driving the market up. In particular, some believe the ore shortage problem is currently unsolvable, and concerns about copper ingot production cuts are intensifying. Others believe copper prices may stabilize above $10,000 per ton.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) 3-month futures contract, an international benchmark, touched $11,200 per ton on October 29th, a new high since May 20, 2024. It has remained in this high range into November.

Concerns about ore supply stem from the current strong market. In early September, a mudslide occurred at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest producer. Furthermore, accidents have occurred at major mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile, resulting in several supply disruptions this year, exacerbating market anxieties about copper supply.

Copper is considered an indispensable “new era oil” for industries such as data centers and electric vehicles (EVs), and continued expansion in demand is widely acknowledged. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts that copper ingot consumption will increase by 3.0% year-on-year in 2025 and by 2.1% in 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that under a “net-zero emissions (NZE)” scenario emphasizing decarbonization, copper demand in 2050 will increase by more than 50% compared to 2024.

International copper prices first broke the $10,000 mark in 2011. While there have been several instances of prices exceeding $10,000 since then, they have failed to hold. Prices have steadily risen, reaching an annual average (based on closing prices) of approximately $9,750 per tonne as of November 11, 2025, approaching $10,000. This represents a 60% increase compared to 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that high copper prices have become fixed.

Goldman Sachs published a report in early October titled “$10,000 Will Be the New Price Floor.” The report points out that due to mine supply constraints and growing demand from artificial intelligence (AI), a floor of $10,000 is set for copper prices, predicting they will fluctuate between $10,000 and $11,000 in 2026-2027.

The market also anticipates reduced copper ingot production. Smelting companies’ revenue comes from processing fees for turning ore into copper ingots. Currently, due to factors such as low ore quality, mining companies, as sellers, have a “seller’s advantage” by raising ore prices. Even before the mining accidents, smelting companies struggled to be profitable.

Domestic smelting companies in Japan have already begun reducing copper ingot production. Mitsubishi Materials announced in October that its copper ingot production from October 2025 to March 2026 will be 14% lower than the first half of the year. Deteriorating ore procurement conditions are cited as one of the reasons. On November 11, Mitsubishi Materials and four other companies, including JX Metals, announced they would begin negotiations to merge their copper raw material procurement and other businesses, aiming to improve competitiveness through consolidation.

If the accident exacerbates the ore shortage, resolving the low processing fees will become even more difficult. Naohiro Shinmura, co-representative of Market Risk Advisory, points out, “Just as Spain and South Korea are struggling, there’s no denying that copper ingot production outside of Japan could accelerate its decline.”

If copper, essential to a wide range of industries, continues to rise, it will likely be passed on to the price of final products. Furthermore, this trend may accelerate the adoption of alternatives such as aluminum. Copper prices may adjust if investment funds engage in profit-taking, but the ore shortage behind this upward trend is unlikely to be eliminated in the short term. Therefore, close attention needs to be paid to the potential movement of copper prices around the $10,000 per ton level.