Who Decides World Gold Prices?

The gold market experienced a dramatic plunge this week. Just one day after reaching a record high of $4,381 per ounce, spot gold prices（金価格）abruptly changed course on the evening of October 21, plummeting and breaking through the $4,100 mark, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2013.

This violent fluctuation caught many investors off guard. In fact, every rise and fall in gold prices is closely related to its unique pricing mechanism and multiple influencing factors.

The “London Gold,” considered the global benchmark, has undergone a century-long evolution in its pricing mechanism. In its inception in 1919, “London Gold” was jointly determined by five major gold dealers, including the Rothschild family, through telephone negotiations within the “Gold Room.” This system relied on London’s position as the world’s gold trading center and operated through an over-the-counter trading model. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), established in 1987, integrated the fragmented trading markets and established a unique delivery system based on 400-ounce gold bars, making London the global gold distribution center. In 2015, the pricing mechanism was reformed again. Through a modern electronic auction system, pricing meetings were held in the mornings and afternoons of weekdays in London, with the participation of several designated international banks, including HSBC and JPMorgan Chase.

The pricing meetings resembled a digital “gold auction”: banks collected buy and sell orders from global clients, continuously submitting bids on an electronic platform until a balance price was found that matched the most buy and sell orders. This final price became the LBMA gold benchmark price, immediately becoming the authoritative basis for pricing global spot gold trading and derivatives.

Factors Affecting Gold Prices

As a safe-haven asset that transcends economic cycles, gold price fluctuations are always closely related to core variables such as the global economic landscape, geopolitical risks, and monetary policy trends.

“Gold and silver are not naturally money, but money is naturally gold and silver.” This classic statement by Marx reveals the special status of gold in the monetary system.

During the gold standard era, the key to whether a country’s currency was accepted by other countries lay in the strength of its gold reserves. After World War II, leveraging its nearly 75% global gold reserves, the United States established the Bretton Woods system, centered on the dollar’s peg to gold, laying the foundation for the dollar’s credibility as the international reserve currency.

However, the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971 marked a significant turning point in modern monetary history. Subsequently, US Treasury bonds gradually replaced gold as the primary reserve asset for central banks worldwide. In recent years, with occasional signs of US Treasury default risk, cracks have begun to appear in the dollar’s credit system, prompting global central banks and investors to increase their gold holdings as a crucial tool for hedging against dollar credit risk—the underlying logic behind the sustained rise in gold prices since last year.

Beyond the changes in the dollar’s credit system, multiple factors are influencing the balance of gold: geopolitical tensions ignite investors’ safe-haven demand; unprecedented increases in global central bank holdings, coupled with continued accumulation by institutional investors, provide solid structural support for gold prices; and capital flows and market sentiment act as amplifiers, amplifying every subtle change in price fluctuations.

Returning to the recent “gold price plunge” that has attracted market attention, its direct trigger is precisely the imbalance in the short-term trading structure. The sustained rise in gold prices since September has led to a crowded gold bull market, accumulating substantial profits. When prices reached key levels, the concentrated profit-taking and exit of these positions ultimately triggered this technical correction.

History has repeatedly shown that gold’s long-term value coexists with the risk of short-term high-level volatility. In a noisy market, remaining calm and resisting the temptation to chase high prices is key to protecting wealth.