The IMF predicts that Japan’s GDP will be surpassed by India in 2026

Japan’s nominal GDP (gross domestic product) is projected to be surpassed by India by 2026. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest estimates on October 14th, showing that Japan’s GDP in 2026 will be $4.4636 trillion, dropping from fourth to fifth place in the world. The yen is depreciating, significantly impacting the decline in GDP measured in US dollars.

Japan’s GDP in 2024 will be $4.0193 trillion, ranking fourth in the world after the United States, China, and Germany. It will be surpassed by Germany in 2023, dropping from third to fourth place.

The IMF’s latest estimates show that Japan’s GDP will be $4.2798 trillion by 2025. This reversal of the gap between Japan and India is one year later than previously predicted.

India’s GDP, which continues to grow rapidly, will reach $4.5056 trillion by 2026, surpassing Japan. It will rise to third place in the world by 2029. India’s domestic auto sales are projected to surpass Japan’s in 2022, becoming the world’s third-largest after China and the United States. The population is also growing significantly, and the burgeoning middle class is driving economic growth.

In terms of growth rates, Japan’s personal consumption is projected to reach 1.1% in 2025, supported by rising real wages. However, weak external demand will slow growth to 0.6% in 2026. India is projected to achieve high growth of 6.6% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026.

By 2030, Japan’s GDP is projected to rise to $5.1198 trillion, but will be surpassed by the UK’s $5.1997 trillion, relegating it to sixth place in the world.