339,000 births in Japan from January to June

The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare released its population statistics for the period from January to June on August 29th (including flash figures for foreign nationals), showing 339,280 births, a 3.1% decrease from the same period last year. While the rate of decline, which had previously exceeded 5%, has slowed since the COVID-19 pandemic, it remains difficult to conclude that the declining birthrate trend has been curbed. In April 2025, the number of children awaiting admission to daycare centers and other institutions, despite having applied, hit a record low for seven consecutive years, partly due to reduced demand for admission caused by the declining birthrate.

The number of births in the first half of the year hit a new low since comparable data became available in 1969. If this rate continues, the annual birth count is likely to hit a new record low.

The number of deaths in the first half of the year was 836,818, a 3.1% increase year-on-year. The natural increase or decrease, calculated by subtracting deaths from births, is a negative 497,538. Japan has experienced a natural population decline for 21 consecutive years. The number of marriages reached 238,561, a 4.0% year-on-year decrease, marking the first decline in two years.

In accordance with the “Children’s Future Strategy,” formulated at the end of 2023, the Japanese government has vigorously promoted “extra-dimensional measures” to counter the declining birthrate, including expanding child allowances.

The Japanese government has positioned the period until 2030 as the last chance to reverse the declining birthrate trend, and the central and local governments have invested a total of approximately 3.6 trillion yen until fiscal 2028 to implement these policies. However, it is difficult to say whether sufficient results have been achieved at this point.

The reason behind the implementation of these “extra-dimensional measures” is that the COVID-19 pandemic has sharply accelerated the trend. Movement restrictions during the pandemic have reduced opportunities for social interaction, leading to a slump in marriages. In Japan, a strong correlation is believed to exist: a decline in marriages is associated with a corresponding decline in births.

Regarding the situation in the first half of 2025, Takumi Fujinami, chief researcher at the Japan Research Institute, noted, “Given the high rate of decline in births, which has exceeded 5% in recent years, this decline has narrowed slightly.” Takumi Fujinami believes the main reason is that the number of marriages, which had plummeted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, has recently plateaued. He also points out that the stable birth rate over the decade since 1990 has helped support the current population of people in their 30s.

Takumi Fujinami predicts that Japan’s birth rate will still decline by more than 3% in 2025, a relatively high level compared to the 1% or more declines seen in the 2000s. He believes that the fertility rate among married women is declining, making it difficult to expect a significant improvement in birth trends.

The Japan Children and Family Agency released data on August 29th stating that as of April 1, 2025, the number of children waiting to be admitted to daycare centers and other institutions, despite having applied, was 2,254. This represents a decrease to less than 10% of the peak number of 260,810 in 2017. The number of children waiting to be admitted decreased by 313 compared to the previous year. Of Japan’s 1,741 municipalities, 1,530 (87.9%) have zero children waiting for kindergarten enrollment.

When asked about the reasons for the decline in child enrollment, 52.2% of these local governments cited “expanding capacity” through the establishment of new daycare centers, the highest percentage. The second highest percentage, 26.3%, cited “lower-than-expected number of applications.”

Otsu City had the largest number of children waiting for kindergarten enrollment, at 132. While this was a decrease of 52 from the previous year, it was still the only city with over 100 children waiting for enrollment. Otsu City explained that “difficulties in securing childcare personnel prevented the planned increase in enrollment.”

In sparsely populated areas of Japan, declining birthrates are leading to a widening shortage of childcare centers, necessitating the consolidation and closure of facilities.

To address the issue of waiting lists, the Japanese government has been expanding childcare capacity, but is now planning a policy shift. Starting in fiscal 2025, the Ministry of Children and Families will increase the national treasury subsidy rate from one-half to two-thirds for local governments anticipating a decrease in childcare demand. The Ministry of Children and Families will consolidate and abolish childcare centers or promote after-school care and cafeterias, targeting local governments that anticipate a decrease in childcare demand.

The number of children on the “hidden waiting list”—those who applied for designated childcare centers but were unsuccessful—is 644,890. While this number has decreased by 6,543 from the previous year, it remains high.

The practice of deliberately targeting unsuccessful applicants for childcare centers in order to extend the period during which childcare leave can be received has become a major problem.