China Resumes Japanese Beef Imports

With China’s move to resume imports of Japanese beef, expectations are growing in Kagoshima Prefecture and other areas of Japan with strong livestock farming. China has already lifted its ban on Japanese seafood imports, and signs of resuming trade are already emerging. Japan’s strategy to expand agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports has been thrown into disarray by the Trump administration’s tariff policies. While the Chinese market holds great potential, some caution remains among Japanese producers.

“For Kagoshima, a livestock production hub, this is very welcome. We have received numerous inquiries regarding China,” said Shohei Uemura, president of Kamichiku (Kagoshima City), a cattle and pork producer.

China halted imports of Japanese beef in 2001, following the outbreak of mad cow disease (BSE) in Japan. If trade is resumed, it would be the first time in 24 years. Kamichiku, which has never exported beef to China, stated, “China is an unknown market, and we see great potential.” In fiscal 2024, Kagoshima Prefecture’s agricultural, forestry, and fishery product exports increased by 28% year-on-year to 47.052 billion yen, marking a new high for the fourth consecutive year. The goal for fiscal 2025 is to reach 50 billion yen, with beef, which accounts for over 30% of exports, at the core of this strategy.

Katsuyuki Kamiyama of the Livestock Industry Promotion Division of the Kagoshima Prefectural Government stated that, amid Japan’s rapidly declining population, “expanding exports will help regulate domestic supply and demand and support prices.” The prefecture believes there is room for improvement in the current export rate, which accounts for less than 10% of production (calculated based on boneless cuts).

To maintain the development of production areas, the Japanese government is promoting agricultural, forestry, and fishery product exports. Beef is a key product, with the goal of increasing exports by 70% from 2024 to 113.2 billion yen by 2030.

On July 11, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the Japan-China Animal Health and Quarantine Agreement, a prerequisite for resuming Japanese beef exports to China, has entered into force. After the two countries signed the agreement in 2019, Chinese procedures were delayed for a long time. Going forward, Japan will continue to hold multiple negotiations with China, including on issues such as safety confirmations, with the goal of exporting beef.

According to data from the Japan Agriculture and Livestock Industries Promotion Organization, China’s beef consumption in 2024 is projected to reach 10.66 million tons, a 14.5% increase from 2021. China’s beef imports in 2024 will reach 2.87 million tons, significantly exceeding Japan’s production in fiscal 2023 (350,000 tons, calculated based on boneless cuts).

In Kumamoto Prefecture, which ranks fourth in Japan in terms of beef cattle production, expectations are also high. The prefecture has launched regular flights from Kumamoto to Shanghai, its first direct flights to China. Kumamoto Governor Takashi Kimura stated, “We will seize the opportunity (to resume exports) while gathering information.”

Due to the delays in Chinese procedures since 2019, some cautious sentiments have been heard from producers in Japan. Kamichiku’s President Uemura also stated, “Various export-related conditions, such as certification and the status of livestock farms, remain unclear, presenting a significant challenge.”

Japan’s seafood industry has already shown signs of resuming trade with China. In late June, China announced the lifting of import restrictions on Japanese seafood products from all but 10 prefectures due to the release of treated nuclear power plant water into the sea. China also announced a list of permitted imports, including scallops, by July.

Iwate Governor Masutaku Tatsuma also stated, “We have long been eagerly awaiting news of the resumption of exports. We will ensure that Iwate Prefecture’s seafood exports are resumed as soon as possible.” The prefecture primarily exports abalone, a premium ingredient, to mainland China via Hong Kong, aiming to recover export volume and prices.

The United States is projected to become Japan’s largest export destination for agricultural, forestry, and fishery products and food products by 2024. However, the Trump administration’s tariff policy has reduced transparency in the US market. While China’s presence has increased, trade risks also exist.