Asian Development Bank: Emerging Asian GDP to Grow 5.1% in 2026

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced on April 10 that it projects GDP growth of 5.1% for emerging market countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026. If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates prolonged, it is expected to reduce the growth rate by up to 1.3 percentage points in 2026-2027.

The ADB releases its economic forecasts in April and September, and revises them in July and December. To reflect the latest economic development levels, the classification of developed and emerging market countries and regions has been adjusted. Emerging market countries and regions are defined as the 43 member countries, including China and India.

This forecast is based on data up to March 10. The situation has changed since the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran continued after the data cutoff, and Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz. The ADB noted that “downside risks to the regional economy are increasing.”

China’s growth rate is expected to slow further, from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts that personal consumption in China will remain sluggish against the backdrop of a deteriorating real estate market.

India’s growth rate is projected to slow from 7.6% in 2025 to 6.9% in 2026, before recovering to 7.3% in 2027. This is attributed to the effects of monetary easing supporting domestic demand and the diminishing impact of US tariffs.

ASEAN member states are projected to grow at 4.6% GDP in both 2026 and 2027. While domestic demand remains strong and exports of semiconductor-related products are growing, many countries rely on the Middle East for crude oil imports. The ADB expressed concern, stating, “Downside risks will increase as conflicts prolong their duration.”