Can Japan break free from its dependence on China’s rare earth elements?

Japan is a country relatively poor in mineral resources, but after World War II, it rapidly became the world’s second-largest economy and industrial power after the United States, and its consumption of various mineral resources has been steadily increasing. Especially since the 1970s, the electronics and automotive industries have become Japan’s leading industries, leading to a continuous rise in the use of various rare minerals, including rare earth elements. In recent years, “critical mineral resources” have received increasing global attention. For decades, Japan did not have the concept of “critical minerals,” but it did have the concept of “rare metals,” referring to 30 rare metal elements plus rare earth elements. Rare metal elements include: lithium (Li), beryllium (Be), boron (B), titanium (Ti), vanadium (V), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), gallium (Ga), germanium (Ge), selenium (Se), rubidium (Rb), strontium (Sr), zirconium (Zr), niobium (Nb), molybdenum (Mo), palladium (Pd), indium (In), antimony (Sb), tellurium (Te), cesium (Se), barium (Ba), hafnium (Hf), tantalum (Ta), tungsten (W), rhenium (Re), platinum (Pt), thallium (TI), and bismuth (Bi). Rare earth elements are not a single substance, but a collective term for 17 elements, including lanthanum (La), cerium (Ce), praseodymium (Pr), neodymium (Nd), promethium (Pm), samarium (Sm), europium (Eu), gadolinium (Gd), terbium (Tb), dysprosium (Dy), holmium (Ho), erbium (Er), thulium (Tm), ytterbium (Yb), lutetium (Lu), scandium (Sc), and yttrium (Y). The concept of “rare metals” was proposed by Japan’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry (now the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) in 1984, using three criteria: 1. Very scarce on Earth, or extremely difficult to refine. 2. Elements currently needed by industry, or needed for future industrial development. 3. Found or refined in a few countries, with Japan heavily reliant on imports. Among the “rare metals” defined by Japan, China has a significant resource advantage not only in rare earth elements, but also in gallium, molybdenum, and tungsten. Japan began strengthening its rare metal reserves, including rare earth elements, after 2010. At that time, serious friction arose between China and Japan over the Diaoyu Islands. Japan’s 2010 Basic Energy Plan designated several “strategic rare metals” and “quasi-strategic rare metals.” The former included rare earth elements, lithium, and tungsten, while the latter included niobium, tantalum, and platinum group elements. In 2012, graphite, silicon, fluorine, and manganese were also designated as reserve elements. In 2020, the Japanese government increased its reserve level from 60 days to 180 days, with the independent administrative agency, the Japan Organization for Metals and Minerals Security (JOGMEC), implementing the reserves. According to my observation, by 2026, Japan will have entered a stage of pursuing rare earth self-sufficiency regardless of cost. However, Japan’s rare earth supply problem cannot be solved in the short term, because rare earths have become an important diplomatic tool not only because of the quantity of resources possessed, but also because of the comprehensive reflection of resource and industrial capabilities.

Japan has been seriously addressing the rare earth issue since 2010.

Japan’s rare earth policy can be divided into three stages. The first phase, before 2010, saw some resource pressure, but overall, there were few concrete countermeasures. The second phase, from 2010 to 2025 (15 years), saw Japan address the rare earth issue through various means. The third phase, starting in 2026, involves Japan experimenting with marine rare earth mining and cooperating closely with major developed countries in Europe and America, attempting to build a new global rare earth supply chain.

During the 15 years from 2010 to 2025, Japan mainly focused on four things regarding rare earths: expanding rare earth sources; developing industrial products that use little or no rare earths; developing technologies to recover rare earths and other rare metals from waste industrial products; and conducting seabed rare earth resource exploration.

1. Expanding Rare Earth Sources

General trading companies have always played a crucial role in Japan’s resource and energy supply chain. Sojitz Corporation is one of Japan’s large general trading companies. In 2011, Sojitz Corporation and JOGMEC Japan established Japan-Australia Rare Earth Co., Ltd. Through Japan-Australia Co., Ltd., Japan invested US$250 million in Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., an Australian rare earth company. This investment secured Japan a supply of 9,000 tons of light rare earths annually. In September 2022, an additional US$9 million investment was made. This additional investment secured Japan a stable import of heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium from Australia.

In March 2025, JOGMEC and Iwatani Corporation, a well-known Japanese gas company, invested €110 million in Caremag SAS, a French company, and signed a long-term contract stipulating that 50% of Caremag SAS’s heavy rare earth production must be exported to Japan.

Around 2010, Japan held several summit meetings with the Vietnamese government regarding rare earth mine development in Vietnam, but little progress was made.

2. Developing industrial products that use little or no rare earths.

Currently, Japan still relies heavily on China for heavy rare earths. Daido Steel Corporation of Japan recently purchased patents from General Motors in the United States and began producing magnets without heavy rare earth elements. Currently, it produces 50 tons annually and plans to expand to 150 tons per year by 2030.

Astemo Corporation, a well-known Japanese automotive parts company, announced in October 2025 that it had successfully developed an electric vehicle motor that does not use rare earth elements. The main component of the motor is relatively inexpensive ferrite. Mass production is expected in 2030.

Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is a global leader in passive electronic components. In 2016, Murata and the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), a Japanese state-owned enterprise, announced the successful development of aluminum nitride piezoelectric materials that do not use the rare earth element scandium. This piezoelectric material is widely used in microelectronics, sensors, and radio frequency devices.

The Japanese government has long been actively promoting the development of products that use fewer or no rare earth elements. Beginning in 2007, the Japanese government spearheaded two national projects: the “Element Strategy Project,” led by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, which focused on basic technology research; and the “Rare Metal Substitute Materials Development Project,” led by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which focused on applied technology research.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) spearheaded the implementation of the following six projects:

(1) Technology development to reduce the use of dysprosium in rare-earth magnets (2007-2011);

(2) Technology development to reduce the use of cerium in precision grinding products and the development of alternative materials (2009-2013);

(3) Technology development to reduce the use of terbium and europium in phosphors and the development of alternative materials (2009-2013);

(4) Development of new permanent magnets to replace neodymium magnets (2009-2015);

(5) Development of yttrium-based composite materials for high-performance motors (2009-2015);

(6) Technology development to reduce the use of cerium in exhaust gas purification materials and the development of alternative materials (2010-2011).

The author has not collected specific results from the above projects, but it can be inferred that these research projects yielded some results. 3. Develop technologies for recovering rare earth and other rare metal resources from waste industrial products.

For over a decade, Japanese media have frequently used the concept of “urban mining,” which simply means recovering various rare resources, including rare earth elements, from waste electronic products or other industrial products. The medals for the 2021 Tokyo Olympics were all made from gold, silver, and bronze recovered from waste electronic products—a first in Olympic history.

The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) in Tsukuba City is also one of Japan’s official research institutions. In 2013, AIST established the “Strategic Urban Mining Research Base” (SURE), a joint government and private organization.

In fact, many Japanese official research institutions are engaged in related work. The New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) funded a research project in 2023 to recover heavy rare earth elements from electric vehicle motors.

4. Conduct seabed rare earth resource exploration activities.

In 2013, a team from Japan’s National Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (NAMSTEC) and the University of Tokyo discovered rare-earth-containing silt on the seabed of the exclusive economic zone near Minami-Torishima Island. Japan has been conducting related research since then, but due to the water depth of approximately 6,000 meters in this area, the relevant technologies have not yet been established.

Entering a New Phase of Seeking Rare Earth Self-Reliance Regardless of Cost

The author believes that starting in 2026, Japan’s rare earth policy will enter a new phase—a phase of exploring new rare earth sources regardless of cost.

Rare earths certainly have extensive applications in the military industry, but their primary application is in the civilian sector. The civilian sector requires consideration of cost. Although Japan’s rare earth imports have been slowly declining over the past decade, the main source remains China. However, with changes in the domestic and international situation, Japan has entered a phase of building a rare earth industrial chain regardless of cost.

Entering 2026, another significant change in Japan’s rare earth policy is its desire to court other developed Western countries to build a rare earth supply chain that excludes China.

In October 2025, US President Trump visited Japan and held talks with newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Their joint statement included a proposal for joint rare earth development. In January 2026, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, while attending the G7 ministerial meeting, proposed jointly building a rare earth supply chain to reduce dependence on China.

After Trump took office, economic security and supply chain restructuring became real issues globally. Regarding rare earths, Japan began investing heavily in domestically controlled rare earth production, regardless of cost. A landmark event was the mining of rare earth resources off the seabed near Minamitorishima Island. In early February 2026, Japan’s scientific research vessel “Chikyu” successfully extracted rare earth-containing seabed mud from a depth of 5700 meters, a story widely reported by almost all Japanese media. Several online media programs also introduced Japanese rare earth concept stocks.

The author believes that even if the seabed mud near Minamitorishima Island contains rare earths, Japan will find it difficult to break free from its dependence on China for several years. Several very specific issues remain unresolved: (1) The technology for efficiently extracting seabed mud from a depth of 6,000 meters has not been established; current technology is experimental. (2) The technology for extracting high-purity rare earth elements from seabed mud containing rare earth elements has not been established; globally, no country currently possesses industrial experience in extracting rare earth elements from seabed mud. (3) The locations of the leading companies and processing plants for industrial production have not yet been determined. Large-scale industrial production requires leading enterprises. Rare earth extraction will generate environmental pressure. To date, I have not seen any information regarding the locations of the leading companies and factories.

Key mineral resources, including rare earths, are currently an important component of China’s diplomatic capabilities, but this capability is built upon industrial capacity, not simply on the quantity of resources possessed.

Rare earths are not actually rare; many countries possess rare earth deposits to varying degrees. China’s current influence stems from its leading position in rare earth refining globally. Over the past few decades, China has accomplished three crucial things:

First, the late Academician Xu Guangxian developed the theory of rare earth cascade extraction. Of course, Academician Xu Guangxian is just one of the most outstanding representatives of Chinese researchers. Through decades of effort, they have developed the world’s most advanced rare earth extraction technologies and related processes, constructing a technological barrier for China’s rare earth industry.

Second, China has shouldered the enormous environmental pressure of rare earth extraction and significantly reduced the environmental costs of rare earth extraction through a three-pronged strategy of “policy enforcement + technological breakthroughs + ecological compensation.”

Third, there has been significant progress in rare earth utilization. For example, for 20 years after the invention of neodymium magnets, Japanese companies dominated the market. After Chinese companies mastered the relevant technologies, the market share of Japanese companies steadily declined.

Stepping beyond rare earths and looking at a broader range of rare metals, such as gallium and germanium, the importance of a country’s comprehensive industrial capabilities becomes even more apparent. China currently accounts for over 90% of the world’s gallium production. China doesn’t have many gallium mines; gallium is a byproduct of aluminum electrolysis. As the world’s largest producer of aluminum electrolysis, China has also become the world’s largest producer of gallium. Producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum requires approximately 14,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity. China has abundant power resources and a huge electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which gives it a voice in the gallium market.

Similar elements include germanium. China is also the world’s largest producer of zinc, and germanium is a byproduct of zinc refining. It can also be extracted from germanium-containing coal ash (such as coal used in coal-fired power plants). Currently, China accounts for about 66% of global germanium production, but the United States is the world’s largest germanium producer.

For a long time, China’s rare earth elements were exported to developed countries, including Japan, at very low prices. Developed countries manufactured high-end products, which China purchased at high prices. Ideally, China should also be able to occupy a high-end position globally through the use of rare earth end products.