Corn prices fall internationally

The international price of corn has fallen. On March 11, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures (the most active settlement month) as an indicator hovered between $4.5 and $4.9 per bushel, down 0.6% from the previous day. China’s import expectations have been lowered, and concerns about trade frictions between the United States and China have intensified.

The March supply and demand report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on March 11 showed that China’s corn imports are expected to be 8 million tons in 2024-2025, down 20% from the 10 million tons predicted in February. It is 66% lower than the 23.41 million tons expected in 2023-2024, the lowest level since 2019-2020.

China is the main importer of U.S. corn. In order to counter the Trump administration’s tariffs on China, China has imposed tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. agricultural products. Since corn is also included in the list, voices of concern about the impact are growing in the market.

There are also clear signs of corn surplus in China. The output in 2024-2025 is expected to increase by 2% from the previous year to 294.92 million tons. With the reduction in imports, the expected end-of-period inventory is lowered by 1% from February, but it still remains at a high level of 201.18 million tons.

Regarding China’s corn supply and demand, Naoyuki Ohmoto, a representative of Green County in Japan, pointed out that “the domestic harvest and sufficient inventory have reduced the need for imports.” He believes that “even if Sino-US relations improve, it will be difficult to drive an increase in demand for US corn.”

The US corn export volume is expected to be 62.23 million tons, and the end-of-period inventory is expected to be 39.12 million tons. Both the export volume and inventory expectations are the same as in February. The expectations for US exports and end-of-period inventory, which are of concern to the market, remain unchanged, which further increases the uncertainty of the outlook.

In the Chicago market, wheat futures also fell on March 11. The most actively traded settlement month hovered between $5.5 and $5.9 per bushel, once down 1.2% from the previous day.

In the supply and demand report, the export volume of U.S. wheat in 2024-2025 is expected to be 22.73 million tons, down 2% from February. The ending inventory is expected to be 22.3 million tons, up 3%, which has led to signs of global surplus to strengthen this expectation.