The U.S. share of cutting-edge semiconductors will account for 20% of the world in 2030

The U.S. share of global semiconductor production has been declining since the 1990s. However, driven by TSMC’s investment in the United States, the U.S. share of global cutting-edge logic semiconductor production capacity is expected to reach 22% by 2030, twice that of 2021. Taiwan’s share will drop from 71% to 58%.

In terms of cutting-edge semiconductors used in artificial intelligence (AI) and communications, the U.S. share of global production will reach more than 20% by 2030, twice that of 2021. The United States will attract Taiwanese and Korean companies to build a system in which AI semiconductors are designed and produced in the United States. In the past, the United States relied on imports of semiconductors from Asia, but in the context of economic security issues, the trend of production returning to the United States has become increasingly significant.

Due to shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic, semiconductors have become strategic materials for economic security. Represented by the United States, Japan and European countries have introduced government support policies that provide huge amounts of funds to attract corporate investment and actively enhance domestic semiconductor production capacity.

The United States’ share of global semiconductor production capacity was 37% in 1990, but it fell to 10% in 2022. The United States’ share of global semiconductor production has been declining since the 1990s, and this trend is expected to reverse from 2025.

Semiconductors mainly include logic semiconductors, which act as the “brain” of electronic devices and perform calculations and judgments, and storage semiconductors, which are used to store data.

From the perspective of economic security, the United States attaches great importance to the self-production of logic semiconductors. In particular, the United States has been stepping up efforts to establish a production system for cutting-edge logic semiconductors used in data centers, communications, and military products.

According to research company TrendForce, driven by TSMC’s investment in the United States, the United States’ share of global cutting-edge logic semiconductor production capacity will reach 22% by 2030, twice that of 2021. Taiwan’s share will drop from 71% to 58%, and South Korea’s share will drop from 12% to 7%.

The United States is eager to secure cutting-edge logic semiconductors because they influence the competitiveness of AI. In terms of AI semiconductor design, the US market is almost monopolized by Nvidia and others, but production depends on Taiwan. Through the investment of Taiwanese and Korean semiconductor manufacturers in the United States, AI semiconductors can be completed in the United States from design to production.

TSMC will invest an additional $100 billion to add three cutting-edge logic semiconductor factories in the United States. It will also set up two cutting-edge packaging facilities and one R&D base responsible for turning semiconductors into products. TSMC’s chairman said that it will mass-produce semiconductors for AI.

SK Hynix of South Korea will also invest $4 billion to build an HBM production plant and R&D facilities in Indiana, USA.

It is impossible to complete the production of AI semiconductors with cutting-edge logic semiconductors alone. It is also necessary to purchase high-performance storage semiconductors that help process data and assemble them into a complete product through cutting-edge packaging processes. By establishing a new cutting-edge packaging base in the United States that was previously concentrated in Taiwan, a one-stop production system can be established in the United States.

US President Trump publicly stated that he would shift the way to attract investment in the United States from subsidies to tariffs, and said that he would increase the share of semiconductor production to 40%.

Under the free trade system since the 2000s, the semiconductor industry has continuously promoted the specialization of design and production, forming an international division of labor system. Currently, countries have begun to strengthen the localization of semiconductors.