Japan’s beef consumption has decreased for five consecutive years

Japan’s domestic beef consumption has decreased for five consecutive years. According to data from the Japan Agricultural and Livestock Industries Promotion Agency (Minato-ku, Tokyo), it will be 860,000 tons in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. In Japan, rice and vegetable prices have skyrocketed. Under such circumstances, consumers are reluctant to buy expensive beef, and Japan’s catering industry has gradually moved away from beef. The demand that has declined due to the new crown epidemic shows no signs of recovery.

In mid-February, in a supermarket in Kawaguchi City, Saitama Prefecture, chicken thighs were sold for about 150 yen per 100 grams. This price is about half of the price of domestic beef belly.

A housewife in her 50s who put chicken in the shopping basket told reporters: “Vegetables have become more expensive. Beef is no longer a price you can buy if you want.” She said she would make Japanese teriyaki chicken for dinner today.

Japan’s domestic beef consumption decreased by 1.9% year-on-year in 2020, when it turned negative for the first time in five years. In Japan, the catering industry demand for beef originally accounted for a higher proportion of consumption than pork and chicken. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for the restaurant industry has almost disappeared, and demand from foreign visitors to Japan, which supports the consumption of high-end wagyu beef, has also disappeared for a time. Cheap pork and chicken are also the mainstays of home consumption.

After entering 2022, demand for the restaurant industry in Japan has tended to recover. However, due to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, feed prices have soared. The breeding cycle of cattle is relatively long. Chickens and pigs can be slaughtered in about 3 months and about 6 months respectively, while cattle need more than 2 years. Cost-intensive beef has always maintained a relatively high price in Japan.

After entering 2024, due to the poor harvest caused by the extreme heat in the summer of the previous year, the supply of rice in Japan decreased, triggering the “Reiwa Rice Riot” in which rice prices soared. Cost-conscious restaurant chains are working hard to develop menus that control unit prices. Even beef rice bowl chains that use more beef are expanding menus that use chicken, and the transformation of ingredients is constantly being promoted.

As demand continues to decrease, the income and expenditure situation of beef cattle farmers is deteriorating. Wagyu farmers are particularly severe. The costs of feed and breeding environment are relatively high among beef cattle. A farmer who raises Wagyu in Nasushiobara City, Tochigi Prefecture, admitted: “In the past two years, it has become almost unprofitable.”

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan, as of February 2024, there were 36,500 farmers raising beef cattle across Japan. The phenomenon of abandonment of farming continues to exist, and 9,100 households have been reduced in the past five years.

The unit price of beef is also difficult to rise. Judging from the average unit price of Wagyu beef in the Tokyo Central Wholesale Market, it was 2,451 yen per kilogram in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Although it rose in 2021 after the epidemic, it has fallen for three consecutive years since then.

While moving away from beef, chicken is popular in Japan. Consumption in 2024 increased by 3% from the previous year to 2.34 million tons. At the counter of the supermarket, compared with Japanese products, the price of chicken is only about half of that of beef.

After a fixed-point observation of the supermarket meat sales shelves in Kawaguchi City, Saitama Prefecture, the reporter found that chicken and pork accounted for about 80% except for the peak demand season at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. The beef shelves are showing a shrinking trend. Even in the beef shelves, they are not Wagyu beef, but almost all low-priced imported beef or Japanese hybrid beef.

Pork consumption is also relatively strong, increasing by 1% year-on-year to 1.86 million tons. From 2024, there was a situation of soaring domestic wholesale prices in Japan in the summer, but consumption remained basically strong, centered on the catering industry.

The sales manager of a large Japanese meat company said: “As long as the prices of chicken and pork do not rise further and the price gap with beef does not narrow, the severe situation of beef sales may continue.”