Vietnam raises GDP growth target to 8% for 2025

The National Assembly of Vietnam approved raising the GDP growth target to more than 8% for 2025 at the interim National Assembly on February 19. Previously, it was set at 6.5-7.0% at the regular National Assembly in the fall of 2024.

After the Lehman crisis in 2008, when the world economy slowed down sharply, Vietnam’s GDP growth rate exceeded 8% only in 2022 (8.02%) due to the low comparison base caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. If the growth rate of 8% is achieved, Vietnam’s per capita GDP is expected to reach the US$5,000 mark.

The Communist Party of Vietnam has proposed to join the ranks of high-income countries in 2045. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to maintain an annual economic growth of 6%-7% for 20 consecutive years.

“It will lay a solid foundation for achieving double-digit growth in the next cycle (starting in 2026),” emphasized Nguyen Chi Dung, Minister of Planning and Investment of Vietnam, who explained the revised target at the interim National Assembly. 8% in 2025 is positioned as a transition node towards high-speed growth.

There are also views that are skeptical about achieving the new target. The second Trump administration is one of the risk factors. In 2024, due to strong exports, Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States exceeded US$100 billion, a record high.

Japanese economists believe that “the Trump administration’s trade policy is likely to be directed at Vietnam,” pointing out the difficulty of external demand driving economic growth.

The Vietnamese government predicts that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 4.5~5.0% in 2025. Rising prices will put pressure on people’s lives and may become a fuse for criticizing the government. The Vietnamese government hinted that public debt will also rise to a level close to the upper limit of the ratio to GDP. The debt ceiling has always been a stumbling block for Vietnam’s infrastructure construction.