Will Kazakhstan restrict wheat exports?

Last week, global wheat prices rose sharply. As of Friday, March wheat futures on the US exchange rose by 3.85% to $6 per bushel ($220 per ton).

The director of the SovEcon analytical center commented on this. He noted that the poor growing conditions of winter crops in Russia and the United States may lead to frost damage in some farmlands. At the same time, large buyers appeared on the market, including Algeria (600,000 tons), Jordan (120,000 tons) and Saudi Arabia (500,000 tons).

At the same time, wheat prices in the Kazakhstan domestic market fell last week due to the sharp appreciation of the tenge against the dollar. When the exchange rate was 530 tenge per dollar, Central Asian buyers offered 120,000 tenge per ton of high-quality wheat, and when the exchange rate was 496 tenge per dollar, they offered 110,000 tenge. In US dollars, the price remained unchanged at $225 per ton (DAP Saryagash/Saryagash station delivery price).

The export prices of wheat in the same lower quality categories showed similar dynamics. Currently, the offer price for ordinary grade 3 wheat is $190 per ton.

Given the current situation, experts advise Kazakh farmers not to rush to sell their stocks. In an interview with AgriNet, Yevgeny Karabanov, an official representative of the Kazakh Grain Union, said that given the low Russian wheat stocks and the poor prospects for the new crop, there is a chance that the Russian border regions bordering Kazakhstan (which suffered from bad weather in the fall of 2024) may start purchasing wheat from Kazakhstan.

According to the SovEcon Analysis Center, as of January 1, Russian wheat stocks were 28.7 million tons, 21% lower than the same period last year. In its January overview, the International Grain Council predicts that as of July 1, 2025, Russia’s ending wheat stocks will be 9.7 million tons. In contrast, Russia’s ending wheat stocks in 2023 are almost twice as high, reaching 15.6 million tons. In this case, Russia is likely to lift the ban on wheat imports from Kazakhstan (which is still in place). At that time, it will be easier for the northern regions of Kazakhstan to export wheat to Russia, rather than to Central Asia through the busy Saryagash station. Of course, this will also lead to higher prices.

Therefore, this is a signal for southern neighbors (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan) to consider buying Kazakh wheat in a timely manner while the Russian market is still closed to Kazakh wheat. Because there is a risk of subsequent price increases, and it is entirely possible that Kazakh wheat exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union will be restricted, as was the case recently with potatoes.

As of February 1, Kazakhstan’s food wheat stocks were 11.817 million tons. In 2024, Kazakhstan exported about 6 million tons of wheat and mixed wheat.