Japan’s polyvinyl chloride exports decrease, and low-priced Chinese products flood into India

Japan’s polyvinyl chloride resin exports in 2024 decreased for the first time in a year. Although exports to India, the largest demand country, have been increasing, exports from Japan and Asian countries and regions slowed down in 2024 due to the suppression of cheap Chinese goods, and unit prices fell. India also plans to increase its own production in the medium and long term, and Japanese companies may be forced to correct their dependence on India.

According to statistics from the Japan Polyvinyl Chloride Industry and Environment Association (Chuo-ku, Tokyo), polyvinyl chloride exports in 2024 will be 580,000 tons, a decrease of 6% from 2023. After 2015, Japan’s total shipments of polyvinyl chloride, including domestic demand and exports, remained at around 1.6 million tons, relying on increased exports to make up for the shrinking domestic demand in Japan. However, in 2024, both domestic demand and exports decreased, and total shipments fell to 1.42 million tons, the lowest level since 2014.

According to the trade statistics of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, exports to India, which account for about 70% of the export destination countries and regions, have dropped sharply by 13% compared with 2023. The head of a large manufacturer said that in 2024, the production capacity will be reduced due to equipment failure, and the reduction in the spare capacity for export to various overseas places will also have an impact, but “the reduction in orders from India will have a greater impact.”

Due to the increase in low-priced exports from China, India’s domestic circulation inventory is in excess, and the need to import from other countries including Japan has decreased. In India, where the population and economic growth are significant, the demand for polyvinyl chloride is expanding, mainly for agricultural and construction pipes. India’s domestic production cannot meet the demand, so imports have increased.

On the other hand, due to the long-term slump in real estate, the demand for polyvinyl chloride has been sluggish, and China’s trend of exporting the excess at low prices has intensified in 2024. Japanese domestic manufacturers said: “There are many Chinese manufacturers, and it is easy to fall into low-price competition.”

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, China’s polyvinyl chloride exports to India increased by 20% in 2024 compared with 2023. Unit prices in US dollars fell 9% year-on-year. The situation in the Asian market deteriorated, and trade statistics from various countries showed that the unit prices of exports from South Korea and Taiwan fell 7%. The unit price of Japanese exports (calculated in yen) divided by the annual average exchange rate, which is the unit price of US dollars, fell 5%.