Trump will impose a 10% tariff on China on February 1?

On January 21, US President Trump said that he was considering imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China. He pressured China to take measures on the grounds that the synthetic drug fentanyl flows into Canada and Mexico through China and then into the United States. Trump’s move is also considered to be intended to use tariffs as a weapon for negotiations in exchange for China’s concessions.

When asked by reporters about the implementation time, Trump replied that “a possible candidate date is February 1”, and he also said: “China sends fentanyl to Mexico and Canada. Based on this fact, I will impose a 10% tariff on China.”

On January 20, US President Trump signed a presidential order to investigate whether there are unfair trade practices centered on China, Canada and Mexico. The presidential order signed by Trump, “Memorandum on Trade Policy with America First”, requires an investigation into whether trading partners have unfair trade practices and inappropriate monetary policies such as inducing currency depreciation.

For Canada, Mexico and China, it is required to investigate the actual situation of illegal immigration and fentanyl (synthetic drugs) flowing into the United States. Trump is increasingly dissatisfied with this and uses it as a reason to impose tariffs.

Regarding China, it will be examined whether the China-US economic and trade agreement that came into effect in 2020 is still being observed. The content of the agreement includes China’s commitment to increase imports of US products.

All investigations are required to submit reports by April 1 and make recommendations on appropriate measures that the president should take.

The possibility of “global unified tariffs” was also mentioned. It is required to make recommendations on appropriate measures including such tariffs based on the investigation of the causes and effects of the huge trade deficit.

During his campaign, Trump promised to impose a unified tariff of 10% to 20% on the world. If implemented, allies including Japan may also become the target of tariffs.

In his inaugural address, Trump said, “Impose tariffs on foreign countries to make our citizens rich,” implying that tariffs will be launched in the future.

Previously, there was a view that Trump would decide to impose tariffs immediately after taking office, but in fact, an investigation period was set.

In November 2024, Trump said that he would impose an additional 10% tariff on all imports from China, and also said that he would sign a presidential order to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada on the first day of his inauguration.

When meeting with reporters at the White House, Trump mentioned the process of launching tariffs on China during his first term as president, saying that “the tariffs have not been lifted, and we have received hundreds of millions of dollars from China (until now).” He did not clearly state whether to impose additional tariffs on China.

When reviewing the telephone consultation with Chinese President Xi Jinping on January 17, Trump said, “This was a good consultation,” hinting at the policy of continuing dialogue in the future. Trump is rumored to want to visit China within 100 days of taking office, and may continue to bargain before then.

It is reported that there are also opinions within the Trump administration that China should be treated with caution. If tariffs are imposed on China, which has a huge trade volume, it may have an impact on retail prices in the United States. If China imposes retaliatory tariffs on American agricultural products, the dissatisfaction of farmers who are Trump supporters will intensify.

The first Trump administration investigated China’s unfair trade practices and continued negotiations during this period. Finally, the decision to impose tariffs was reached one year and two months after taking office, and the process was immediately launched.

When talking about Canada and Mexico, Trump said, “I am considering a 25% (tariff) as a measure to deal with illegal immigration and the influx of drugs. I plan to implement it on February 1st.”

Trump instructed various agencies to re-evaluate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The USMCA, which has achieved zero tariffs under certain conditions, is scheduled to be revised in 2026.

During his first term, Trump changed the original North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to the USMCA, but was dissatisfied with the large amount of imports from Mexico.