Analysis of global silver price trends on January 17

On January 16, silver prices rose in the European market. Silver prices climbed to around $31.00 as traders reassessed the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and expected the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year due to mixed U.S. inflation data.

Usually, signs of accelerated Fed “dovish” bets are a good sign for interest-free assets such as silver.

If silver prices break through $32.33, it may trigger a strong rise, and the target range may point to $34.35-$35.40, while the strong resistance level is at $34.87. If silver prices break through these key technical levels, it may trigger a larger increase. On the contrary, if silver prices fall back, technically it is expected to find support around $30.53. If prices fall back to this level and do not fall below the $30 support line, silver prices may regain upward momentum.

In fact, gold performed well in 2024, and silver is also not bad. In 2024, the international silver price denominated in US dollars rose by about 20%. Although this increase is not as strong as gold and the US stock market, it still outperforms most investment products such as emerging market stocks, US bonds, and commodity basket indexes.

It is worth noting that the main reasons supporting the international gold price also apply to the international silver price. For example, driven by the decline in US bond yields and the increase in the attractiveness of non-yielding assets, the holdings of global silver ETFs are also gradually increasing. In addition, unlike the characteristics of gold, silver is widely used in emerging industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles. Therefore, as the global green energy transition accelerates, the long-term demand for silver will be supported.

From the perspective of the gold-silver ratio, the gold-silver ratio exceeded 88 in mid-January 2025, which means that the price of one ounce of gold can buy more than 88 ounces of silver. The gold-silver price ratio is stable at around 65, which is regarded as a “reasonable range” by most investors, which also indicates that the international silver price still has room to rise.

Looking forward, analysts believe that the trend of silver prices will continue to be affected by US economic data and expectations of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. With the mild performance of US inflation data, the market’s expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cuts have been strengthened. It is expected that the Fed may implement two interest rate cuts this year, and the first interest rate cut may be brought forward to June, which provides support for silver prices. In addition, the US dollar index has fallen from a two-year high, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has also fallen, which means that the dollar’s pullback and the Fed’s dovish expectations may continue to support silver prices.

Overall, silver prices may continue to be supported by technical factors, and with the changes in Fed policy expectations and US economic data, the upward momentum of silver prices still exists.