China-Japan-South Korea survey: 40% of Chinese companies believe that relations with the United States will improve

The “China-Japan-South Korea Business Survey” jointly conducted by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Chinese version: Nikkei Chinese website) and China’s Global Times and South Korea’s Maeil Business News shows that 40% of Chinese companies answered that relations with the United States “will improve”. Compared with Korean and Japanese companies, Chinese companies are more optimistic. Some analysts believe that the background is that although the US-China confrontation continues, they still expect to negotiate under the new US Trump administration.

In the questionnaire survey, the relationship between the United States and their country will be what will happen after Trump is re-elected as president. Among Chinese companies, the proportion of “significantly improved” and “slightly improved” totaled 38%, higher than the total of “significantly deteriorated” and “slightly deteriorated” (8%).

In China, there is a view that Trump eased tariffs to a certain extent through negotiations during his first term, so it will be easier to deal with than the current Biden administration. There is also an expectation that as the United States promotes protectionism, cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea will be strengthened.

Chen Fengying, former director of the Institute of World Economics at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out that after the Trump administration came to power, it would implement a strategy centered on the United States. Japan and South Korea will believe that they cannot rely on the United States and will increase economic cooperation with China.

Among Japanese companies, 83% believe that there is “no change” in relations with the United States, and there is a strong tendency to wait and see. “Improvement” is 2%, and “deterioration” is 15%.

From the perspective of Korean companies, 14% believe that relations with the United States have “improved”, while “deterioration” is 40%, showing the most pessimistic expectations among the three countries.

Trump, who will be re-elected as US President on January 20, proposed to increase tariffs. For South Korea, the United States is an export destination on par with China. If the United States actually raises tariffs, it will have a huge impact, and this concern has intensified.

The questionnaire survey was conducted from December 2 to 18, 2024. A total of 287 business operators in Japan, China and South Korea responded.