{"id":222,"date":"2025-11-05T12:32:17","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T05:32:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/?p=222"},"modified":"2025-11-05T12:32:48","modified_gmt":"2025-11-05T05:32:48","slug":"ai-quyet-dinh-gia-vang-the-gioi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/2025\/11\/05\/ai-quyet-dinh-gia-vang-the-gioi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ai quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh trong tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y. Ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y sau khi \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 4.381 \u0111\u00f4 la m\u1ed9t ounce, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng giao ngay \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o t\u1ed1i ng\u00e0y 21 th\u00e1ng 10, lao d\u1ed1c v\u00e0 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 m\u1ed1c 4.100 \u0111\u00f4 la, \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2013.\uff08\u91d1\u4fa1\u683c<\/a>\uff09Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng<\/a><\/p>\n

Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1eef d\u1ed9i n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng t\u0103ng v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ec1u li\u00ean quan ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd \u0111\u1ebfn c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n

“V\u00e0ng London”, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 chu\u1ea9n m\u1ef1c to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u00e0ng th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1. Ra \u0111\u1eddi v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1919, “V\u00e0ng London” \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh chung b\u1edfi n\u0103m nh\u00e0 m\u00f4i gi\u1edbi v\u00e0ng l\u1edbn, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 gia t\u1ed9c Rothschild, th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n qua \u0111i\u1ec7n tho\u1ea1i trong “Ph\u00f2ng V\u00e0ng”. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a London l\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0ng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh giao d\u1ecbch OTC. Hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng V\u00e0ng th\u1ecfi London (LBMA), \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp n\u0103m 1987, \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng giao d\u1ecbch b\u1ecb ph\u00e2n m\u1ea3nh v\u00e0 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c th\u1ecfi v\u00e0ng 400 ounce, bi\u1ebfn London th\u00e0nh trung t\u00e2m ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i v\u00e0ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. N\u0103m 2015, c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa. Th\u00f4ng qua h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ea5u gi\u00e1 \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i, c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0o bu\u1ed5i s\u00e1ng v\u00e0 bu\u1ed5i chi\u1ec1u c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y trong tu\u1ea7n t\u1ea1i London, v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 tham gia c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ecbnh, bao g\u1ed3m HSBC v\u00e0 JPMorgan Chase.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t “cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea5u gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng” k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1: c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng thu th\u1eadp l\u1ec7nh mua v\u00e0 b\u00e1n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, li\u00ean t\u1ee5c g\u1eedi gi\u00e1 th\u1ea7u tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi t\u00ecm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng kh\u1edbp v\u1edbi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh mua v\u00e0 b\u00e1n. M\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng n\u00e0y tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh gi\u00e1 chu\u1ea9n v\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a LBMA, ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u01a1 s\u1edf ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0ng giao ngay v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u00e1i sinh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng<\/p>\n

L\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng lu\u00f4n li\u00ean quan ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i nh\u01b0 b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n

“V\u00e0ng b\u1ea1c t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n, nh\u01b0ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 v\u00e0ng b\u1ea1c.” C\u00e2u n\u00f3i kinh \u0111i\u1ec3n n\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Marx cho th\u1ea5y v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n

Trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 b\u1ea3n v\u1ecb v\u00e0ng, ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn n\u1eb1m \u1edf s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef v\u00e0ng. Sau Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn II, t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng g\u1ea7n 75% d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef v\u00e0ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng Bretton Woods, t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c neo \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la v\u00e0o v\u00e0ng, \u0111\u1eb7t n\u1ec1n m\u00f3ng cho uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la kh\u1ecfi v\u00e0ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1971 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u1eb7t quan tr\u1ecdng trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i. Sau \u0111\u00f3, tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 d\u1ea7n thay th\u1ebf v\u00e0ng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3, nh\u1eefng v\u1ebft n\u1ee9t b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la – logic c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1eb1ng sau s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i.<\/p>\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la, nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111ang \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng: c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb kh\u01a1i d\u1eady nhu c\u1ea7u tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0; l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u00edch l\u0169y li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c, t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac cho gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng; d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i, khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i m\u1ecdi thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf trong bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi “\u0111\u1ee3t lao d\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng” g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 thu h\u00fat s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng trong c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u giao d\u1ecbch ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng t\u0103ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 9 \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, t\u00edch l\u0169y l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Khi gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c quan tr\u1ecdng, vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0 tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf n\u00e0y cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

L\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n ch\u1ee9ng minh r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng song h\u00e0nh v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 cao ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh, vi\u1ec7c gi\u1eef b\u00ecnh t\u0129nh v\u00e0 ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf s\u1ef1 c\u00e1m d\u1ed7 theo \u0111u\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 cao l\u00e0 ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh trong tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y. Ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y sau khi \u0111\u1ea1t… Read More »<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/222"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=222"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/222\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":224,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/222\/revisions\/224"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=222"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=222"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibnews.com\/vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=222"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}