\u5fb7\u56fd\u6b63\u906d\u53d7\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e0b\u8c03\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u5373\u5c06\u4e0a\u4efb\u7684Trump\u653f\u5e9c\u8ba1\u5212\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u5c06\u5bf9\u5fb7\u56fd\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n
Consensus Economics \u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u5230 2025 \u5e74\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u4ec5\u589e\u957f 0.6%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e74\u4e2d\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 1.2%\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u5de5\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u589e\u957f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0b\u8c03\u5e45\u5ea6\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6b64\u6b21\u524a\u51cf\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u5373\u5728Donald Trump\u91cd\u8fd4\u767d\u5bab\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u51bb\u7ed3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u4f1a\u63a8\u8fdf\u91cd\u5927\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u5c06\u751f\u4ea7\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u52a8\u8361\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u5b89\u60c5\u7eea\u3002<\/p>\n
\u57fa\u5c14\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957fMoritz Schularick\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5fb7\u56fd\u6218\u540e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5947\u8ff9\u7684\u652f\u67f1-\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u3001\u6c7d\u8f66\u5de5\u4e1a\u548c\u5317\u7ea6-\u6b63\u5728\u540c\u65f6\u52a8\u6447\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u906d\u53d7\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u3001\u76d1\u7ba1\u8fc7\u5ea6\u548c\u6570\u5b57\u5316\u79ef\u538b\u7684\u5fb7\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u6253\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n
\u81ea 2021 \u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u5b9e\u9645 GDP \u4e00\u76f4\u505c\u6ede\u4e0d\u524d\u3002\u65e9\u5728Trump\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u8d62\u5f97\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u5c31\u5df2\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u660e\u5e74\u518d\u8fce\u6765\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u6e29\u548c\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u8c03\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n
Berenberg\u94f6\u884c\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Holger Schmieding\u5c06\u4ed6\u5bf9 2025 \u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u51e0\u4e4e\u51cf\u534a\u81f3 0.3%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4ed6\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u5927\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4ee5\u53ca\u82f1\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u201c\u5fb7\u56fd\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u5e76\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u5728\u201c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u52a0\u5267\u201d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4eca\u5e74\uff0c\u5728Trump\u80dc\u9009\u8fd1\u4e00\u5468\u540e\uff0cConsensus Economics \u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u8ba1\u5fb7\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u5e73\u5747\u840e\u7f29 0.1%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e 1 \u6708\u4efd\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 0.3% \u7684\u6269\u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5fb7\u56fd\u4e0d\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7684\u4e09\u65b9\u8054\u76df\uff08\u793e\u4f1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u3001\u7eff\u515a\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\uff09\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u4e00\u5929\u540e\u89e3\u4f53\u3002\u63d0\u524d\u9009\u4e3e\u5b9a\u4e8e 2 \u6708\u5e95\u4e3e\u884c\uff0c\u4f46\u7ec4\u5efa\u65b0\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8054\u76df\u8c08\u5224\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u62d6\u5ef6\u6570\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5fb7\u56fd\u5de5\u4e1a\u8054\u5408\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5916\u8d38\u6613\u4e3b\u7ba1 Matthias Kr\u00e4mer \u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5fb7\u56fd\u5546\u4eba\u7684\u7126\u8651\u548c\u7d27\u5f20\u60c5\u7eea\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u6da8\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6253\u51fb\u5c06\u201c\u6781\u5176\u75db\u82e6\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
2023 \u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5360\u5fb7\u56fd\u51fa\u53e3\u7684 10%\uff0c\u4e3a 20 \u591a\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n
\u81ea 2015 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53d6\u4ee3\u6cd5\u56fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5fb7\u56fd\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u968f\u7740\u4e2d\u56fd\uff08\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u524d\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff09\u5927\u5e45\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u5fb7\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5236\u88c1\u6253\u51fb\u4e86\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u9500\u552e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7531\u4e8e\u5fb7\u56fd\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u5927\u5927\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u987a\u5dee\u5728 2023 \u5e74\u6500\u5347\u81f3\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684 633 \u4ebf\u6b27\u5143\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u524d\u5915\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5fb7\u56fd\u51fa\u53e3\u5546\u4e89\u76f8\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd0\u9001\u8d27\u7269\uff0c9 \u6708\u4efd\u51fa\u53e3\u7ecf\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u6ce2\u52a8\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u73af\u6bd4\u589e\u957f 4.8%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u6210\u529f\u638c\u63e1\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u5206\u5de5\uff0c\u5e76\u52aa\u529b\u6253\u9020\u9ad8\u6548\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u201d Kr\u00e4mer\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6155\u5c3c\u9ed1 Ifo \u7814\u7a76\u6240\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5982\u679cTrump\u5151\u73b0\u7ade\u9009\u65f6\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u5bf9\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u4ea7\u54c1\u5f81\u6536 20% \u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d 15%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5fb7\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957fJoachim Nagel \u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u201c\u5730\u7f18\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u88c2\u201d\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0cTrump\u5173\u7a0e\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u5168\u9762\u5b9e\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f GDP \u589e\u957f\u51cf\u5c11\u4e00\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5fb7\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u81ea 2020 \u5e74\u5e95\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u65fa\u76db\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5fb7\u56fd\u6c7d\u8f66\u5236\u9020\u5546\u6b63\u52aa\u529b\u5e94\u5bf9\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u8f6c\u578b\u3001\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u6fc0\u70c8\u7ade\u4e89\u548c\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5236\u836f\u96c6\u56e2\u5c06\u53d7\u5230\u7279\u522b\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5360\u5fb7\u56fd\u6d77\u5916\u6c7d\u8f66\u9500\u91cf\u7684 13%\uff0c\u5360\u5fb7\u56fd\u836f\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u7684 22%\u3002\u636e Ifo \u667a\u5e93\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5168\u9762\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\u90fd\u5c06\u66b4\u8dcc\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u672c\u571f\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u4e5f\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u96be\u8fc7\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u56fd\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u9762\u4e34\u6bd4\u6b27\u6d32\u540c\u884c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5c06\u628a\u6253\u6298\u4ea7\u54c1\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u6b27\u76df\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7f13\u89e3\u6b27\u76df\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u4f46\u56fd\u5185\u5236\u9020\u5546\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u66f4\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u538b\u7f29\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6839\u636e\u5b98\u65b9\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u4ea7\u91cf\u6bd4 2019 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u4f4e 10%\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u97e9\u56fd\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u5408\u7ec4\u7ec7\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u5728\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ea7\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u7684\u8870\u9000\u5e76\u672a\u5f97\u5230\u904f\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u5c06\u5e0c\u671b\u90e8\u5206\u5bc4\u6258\u5728Trump\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3aTrump\u5728\u5173\u7a0e\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u5927\u8086\u5ba3\u626c\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u53ea\u5f81\u6536\u4e86\u6709\u9650\u7684\u7a0e\u3002<\/p>\n
Capital Economics\u7684 Neal Shearing \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\uff0cTrump\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5229\u7528\u5173\u7a0e\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u76df\u53cb\u505a\u51fa\u653f\u7b56\u8ba9\u6b65\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u63a8\u52a8\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u8131\u94a9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8054\u7cfb\u6700\u4e3a\u5bc6\u5207\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u5982\u679cTrump\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u8ba1\u5212\u523a\u6fc0\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u5bf9\u5fb7\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5bf9\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u6b27\u5143\u7ee7\u7eed\u5347\u503c\u7684\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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