\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u6d3b\u52a8\u5347\u81f3\u4e5d\u4e2a\u6708\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u63a9\u76d6\u4e86\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u75b2\u8f6f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5468\u56db\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c3\u6708\u4efd\u6807\u666e\u5168\u7403\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6570(PMI)\u5347\u81f349.9\uff0c\u5f3a\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u768449.7\uff0c\u6700\u63a5\u8fd16\u6708\u4efd\u4ee5\u6765\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u6269\u5f20\u768450\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\uff0c\u5176\u589e\u957f\u52bf\u5934\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u800c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u6307\u6807\u5374\u51fa\u4eba\u610f\u6599\u5730\u8dcc\u81f3\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6c49\u5821\u5546\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u603b\u4f53PMI\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u63a9\u76d6\u4e86\u5fb7\u56fd\u548c\u6cd5\u56fd\u7684\u4e25\u5cfb\u5f62\u52bf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u843d\u540e\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u6210\u5458\u56fd\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7531 20 \u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u533a\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4ec5\u4e3a 0.1%\uff0c\u5168\u5e74\u4ea7\u51fa\u589e\u5e45\u4ec5\u4e3a 0.5%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6c49\u5821\u5546\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8d5b\u52d2\u65af\u00b7\u5fb7\u62c9\u9c81\u6bd4\u4e9a(Cyrus de la Rubia)\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5e0c\u671b\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u65f6\u5019\u8ba4\u8f93\u4e86\u3002\u201d \u201c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u7ebf\u5e0c\u671b\u3002 \u516c\u53f8\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u4ecd\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u201c\u4e0e\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u5fb7\u56fd\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u7efc\u5408PMI\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u51e0\u4e4e\u76f8\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u75b2\u8f6f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u6cd5\u56fd\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u672c\u6708\u840e\u7f29\u901f\u5ea6\u7565\u5feb\u4e8e2\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u800c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6709\u6240\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u63a5\u8fd1\u505c\u6ede\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5fb7\u56fd\u91cd\u8981\u5236\u9020\u5546\u518d\u6b21\u8fdd\u80cc\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u6539\u5584\u52bf\u5934\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u6307\u6570\u4ece 2 \u6708\u4efd\u7684 42.5 \u964d\u81f3 41.6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u5fb7\u56fd\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u56de\u5230\u6b63\u8f68\uff0c\u201d\u5fb7\u62c9\u9c81\u6bd4\u4e9a\u8bf4\u3002 \u201c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4ee5\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u6536\u7f29\u901f\u5ea6\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86 2024 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u76f8\u547c\u5e94\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
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\u5728\u6cd5\u56fd\uff0c\u5468\u56db\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6307\u6807\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5de5\u4e1a\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6709\u6240\u6539\u5584\u3002 \u7edf\u8ba1\u673a\u6784 Insee \u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u6240\u6709\u884c\u4e1a\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6570\u5728 3 \u6708\u4efd\u81ea 9 \u6708\u4efd\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u8fbe\u5230 100 \u7684\u957f\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u7269\u4ef7\u538b\u529b\u90fd\u6709\u7f13\u89e3\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u4f46\u85aa\u8d44\u4e0a\u6da8\u4ecd\u7136\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u670d\u52a1\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6210\u672c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c[ECB]\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u5de5\u8d44\u654f\u611f\u7684\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u538b\u529b\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b89\u6170\uff0c\u201d\u5fb7\u62c9\u9c81\u6bd4\u4e9a\u8868\u793a\u3002 \u201c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u5927\u3002 \u56e0\u6b64\uff0cPMI \u4ef7\u683c\u6d88\u606f\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u6539\u53d8\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c 6 \u6708\u800c\u4e0d\u662f 4 \u6708\u964d\u606f\u7684\u660e\u663e\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201c\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4ea7\u51fa\u6b63\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u8ddd\u79bb\u5d29\u6e83\u8fd8\u5f88\u8fdc\u3002 \u8fd9\u5c06\u4e3a\u7ba1\u7406\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5728\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4e4b\u524d\u4e89\u53d6\u4e00\u4e9b\u65f6\u95f4\u3002 \u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u5c06\u5728 6 \u6708\u4efd\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u201d\u5f6d\u535a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u53f8 (Bloomberg Economics) \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6234\u7ef4\u00b7\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14 (David Powell) \u8868\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4efd\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u79c1\u8425\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e09\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bc1\u660e\u53bb\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6b63\u5728\u590d\u82cf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5468\u56db\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u663e\u793a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u957f\u3002 \u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u6269\u5f20\u66f4\u4e3a\u5f3a\u52b2\u3002<\/p>\n
PMI \u56e0\u6708\u521d\u53d1\u5e03\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u64c5\u957f\u63ed\u793a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d8b\u52bf\u548c\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u3002 \u5546\u4e1a\u8c03\u67e5\u8861\u91cf\u4ea7\u51fa\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5e7f\u5ea6\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6df1\u5ea6\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u5f88\u96be\u76f4\u63a5\u6620\u5c04\u5230\u5b63\u5ea6 GDP\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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